The Death Shot!
Benny & The Squirrel Ep. 72 - Unmissable Sunday Show UK Edition
Episode 72 was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Saturday 26th July, 2026. Don’t miss this week’s LIVE ‘Ask us Anything’ on Thursday evening at 6.30pm EST.
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Oh and if you are interested in historical Fed cycles vs the delta in the long end I forgot to include this thread of research I did in Q4’24 on the show but invite you to go check it out.
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Episode Slide Deck (Below Paywall)
Podcast Summary
Fed Week
Macro rundown focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the “Four Horsemen of Risk”.
The Death Shot Concept: The historical pattern of central banks delivering a final, aggressive rate hike at the end of a tightening cycle to pop market bubbles, citing past moves by Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet, and Volcker.
Roughly 34 percent market probability of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. They debate whether Chairman Powell will use this opportunity to establish credibility given high price levels and the ongoing capex boom.
Trading the Short End (Minute 10)
The conversation shifts to strategies for trading a potential Fed hike, such as using the Simplify ETF TUA or simply buying the dip in short term rates if a hawkish surprise causes a selloff.
Recent upward moves in oil prices and oil volatility have already tightened financial conditions.
Currency and Credit Markets (Minute 15)
The widening of high yield and investment grade credit spreads is as a form of quantitative tightening occurring organically in the market.
Big CDS moves from companies like SpaceX, CoreWeave, and Oracle. The massive spread moves in these names are noted as a factor undermining risk appetite for investment grade portfolio managers.
Equity Markets & Gold (Minute 24)
We break down the technical damage under the surface of the stock market, specifically noting the severe underperformance of the momentum factor and the divergence between the Nasdaq and the broader market.
Is gold buyable after a final washout driven by a hawkish Fed?
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