<![CDATA[Capital Misallocation]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z-by!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4dd7227c-b2f5-4334-b498-ce1e80d112df_1000x1000.pngCapital Misallocationhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.comSubstackTue, 18 Aug 2026 10:49:18 GMT<![CDATA[Volatility Takes a Summer Nap]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/volatility-takes-a-summer-naphttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/volatility-takes-a-summer-napMon, 17 Aug 2026 01:05:22 GMT

Episode 78 was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Sunday 17th August, 2026.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[Fading the K-Shaped Economy Narrative]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/fading-the-k-shaped-economy-narrativehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/fading-the-k-shaped-economy-narrativeFri, 14 Aug 2026 17:52:16 GMT

Benny (Capital Misallocation) & The Squirrel (Blind Macro Squirrel) were joined once again by Jeff. Jeff founded Macke Asset Management after getting his MBA from Stanford in the 1990s. He wrote for TheStreet.com, Minyanville and Yahoo Finance. He was also a founding cast member of CNBC’s Fast Money and an anchor on Yahoo Finance.

Jeff learned his trade on the knee of his dad who was the CEO of Target for over a decade. You could say US retail runs through Jeff’s blood. You can find his subscriber content over at StockMarket TV as well as at Wall Street Beats where he is a partner there with Benny.

The discussion argues that the US consumer is materially healthier in observed spending data than the prevailing macro narrative suggests. The core investment implication is that heavily shorted, low-expectation retail, restaurant, leisure, and turnaround names can produce outsized returns when results merely show that conditions are “fine,” particularly while capital remains concentrated in AI and semiconductors.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 13th August.

Become a paid subscriber to get visual decks of complex topics distilled for subs, full show notes + episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website, and access to my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors so come join!

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]]><![CDATA[Is AI Profitable?]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/is-ai-profitablehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/is-ai-profitableMon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:16 GMT

Episode 74 was recorded at 6.00pm EST on Sunday 9th August, 2026.

In this episode we take a deep dive on the tug-of-war between market driven price cuts and innovation driven cost cuts and take our first shot at valuing the two LLM frontier lab companies that are driving the entire AI supply chain in equity and credit. These two mega IPOs lie on the horizon and there is alot of capital and hopes resting on the shoulders of Sam and Dario.

Paying subs get access to the entire LLM Tokenomics deck Benny created and Rupert’s full valuation models that he put out on OpenAI and Anthropic. Enjoy!

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

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Quick housekeeping note. Several subscribers are not YouTube fans and have asked for an audio edition of Benny & The Squirrel to be available on the podcast apps. This is now possible, please sign up at Benny & The Squirrel | Substack and then connect your favorite podcast app in ‘Manage Settings’ (see below). Eventually we will move things over there as we continue to grow but for now this can provide listeners looking for audio only an option.

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Full show notes (containing the slide deck and pod summary) will continue to come to your inbox from the Blind Squirrel Macro feed. You can disable the ‘extra’ email - again via the ‘Benny & The Squirrel’ ‘Manage Settings’ page.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[Mike's New Adventure ]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/mikes-new-adventurehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/mikes-new-adventureSun, 09 Aug 2026 21:44:40 GMT

Benny (Capital Misallocation) & The Squirrel (Blind Squirrel Macro) were joined once again by Mike Green, Founder of Tier 1 Alpha Asset Management who writes who you can also follow on this platform at Yes, I give a fig.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 6th August.

⚠️ Audio Quality Warning & Apology ⚠️
We want to sincerely apologize for the audio issues on our end during this episode. Blame Caribbean Telecoms! However, we decided to publish this because Mike Green’s audio is perfectly clear, and since he is delivering the vast majority of the insights and doing most of the talking, we didn’t want you to miss out on this incredible conversation.

Benny & The Squirrel will be back on Sunday evening for our regular ‘Start the Week’ show where we will focus on LLM ‘Tokenomics’ and take a first shot at putting valuations on the upcoming Anthropic and OpenAI Mega IPOs.

Become a paid subscriber to get visual decks of complex topics distilled for subs, full show notes + episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website, and access to my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors so come join!

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]]><![CDATA[The Compute Standard]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-compute-standardhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-compute-standardMon, 03 Aug 2026 19:45:30 GMT

Capital Misallocation™ · Essay #4

The 4th of 50 essays on Capital Misallocation™. The Mississippi essay was about how Systems form. The South Sea essay was about how forced buying works. The Railway Hallucination was about what happens after: the technology wins, the infrastructure survives, the investors get destroyed. This one is about what happens before. The deferral of a bill for thirty-six years. The refinancing vehicle that warehoused it. And the moment that vehicle starts lending into the next boom.

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]]><![CDATA[The Death Shot!]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-death-shothttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-death-shotMon, 27 Jul 2026 02:46:29 GMT

Episode 72 was recorded at 6.30pm EST on Saturday 26th July, 2026. Don’t miss this week’s LIVE ‘Ask us Anything’ on Thursday evening at 6.30pm EST.

The show has expanded on the socials! Follow us on Instagram and / or TikTok (if you do that kind of thing!)

Benny & The Squirrel (@bennyandthesquirrel) | TikTok

https://www.instagram.com/benny_and_the_squirrel/

Oh and if you are interested in historical Fed cycles vs the delta in the long end I forgot to include this thread of research I did in Q4’24 on the show but invite you to go check it out.

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]]><![CDATA[Yen Bulls Anonymous]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/yen-bulls-anonymoushttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/yen-bulls-anonymousFri, 24 Jul 2026 17:56:22 GMT

Benny (Capital Misallocation) & The Squirrel (Blind Squirrel Macro) were joined once again by great friend of the show Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist newsletter.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Wednesday 22nd July - just after Google released their earnings - very timely, given the fact that Kev has been doing a great job recently unpicking the S&P ‘earnings bubble’ (hint: most of it is mark-ups on unrealized gains on AI investments). After the show I was inspired to use Gemini to make a GOOG 0.68%↑ meme on this issue.

Benny & The Squirrel will be back on Sunday evening for our regular ‘Start the Week’ show.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[The Railway Hallucination - Podcast Edition]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-railway-hallucination-podcasthttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-railway-hallucination-podcastTue, 21 Jul 2026 05:45:31 GMT

Episode 70 was recorded at 8pm EST on Saturday 18th July, 2026. I laid out a decent amount of how the current LLM Transformer capex boom is just simply nonsense outside of the inner “Cantillion” circle that wants it to keep expanding the same way John Law wanted it to expandere ad infinitum.

Enjoy!

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]]><![CDATA[Be Aggressively Defensive!]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/be-aggressively-defensivehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/be-aggressively-defensiveSun, 19 Jul 2026 16:26:27 GMT

Benny (Capital Misallocation) & The Squirrel (Blind Squirrel Macro) were joined once again by David Dredge, Founder and CIO of Singapore-based Convex Strategies.

The show was aired live at 6pm EST on Thursday 16th July.

David has had a front row seat for pretty much every complex economic and market event going back to the October ’87 crash, actively managing risk and risk businesses for Bank of America, Bankers Trust, ABN Amro /RBS before moving to the buyside with Artradis, Fortress, City Financial and now Convex Strategies. Dave’s excellent monthly essays can be found at Updates – Convex Strategies.

Benny & The Squirrel will be back on Sunday evening for our regular ‘Start the Week’ show.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[The Railway Hallucination: The Infrastructure That Outlived Its Shareholders]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-railway-hallucination-the-infrastructurehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-railway-hallucination-the-infrastructureThu, 16 Jul 2026 23:23:42 GMTCapital Misallocation™ · Essay #3

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]]><![CDATA[AI ROI Framework is Broken!]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/ai-roi-framework-is-brokenhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/ai-roi-framework-is-brokenMon, 13 Jul 2026 01:22:06 GMT

Episode 68 was recorded at 7pm EST on Sunday 12th July, 2026. Don’t miss this week’s guest show on Thursday. Dave Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, and master of volatility markets rejoins us during what promises to be an interesting week up in Japan. Should be a fun episode!

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[Banks: Exit Stage Right!]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/banks-exit-stage-righthttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/banks-exit-stage-rightFri, 10 Jul 2026 00:36:28 GMT

In Episode 67, Benny & The Squirrel welcome back our regular guest Charlie Peabody. Charlie is a partner and the founder of financials specialist Portales Partners.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Wednesday 8th July, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[Impending DRAM-a??]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/impending-dram-ahttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/impending-dram-aMon, 06 Jul 2026 20:16:09 GMT

Episode 66 was recorded at 7pm EST on Sunday 5th July and the Squirrel was fortunate enough to get a rain delay for the England vs Mexico match providing the window to record without sacrificing watching the big World Cup match.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, and access the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes a number of my subs as well as LPs and other professional investors where I share a morning summary of the markets, real time market color & analysis, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and great interaction with many other professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[The $40bn Fund That Won't Let You Out]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-40bn-fund-that-wont-let-you-outhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-40bn-fund-that-wont-let-you-outMon, 06 Jul 2026 20:08:39 GMT

In Episode 65, Benny & I were joined by Laks Ganapathi, Founder of Unicus Research and Portfolio Manager at Minerva. Unicus Research provides actionable, short-focused investment ideas to institutional managers worldwide, applying proprietary primary research and thorough fundamental and investigative analysis.

Laks has been all over the emerging meltdown in the private credit market. Join us for a deep dive.

The show was recorded at 6pm EST on Thursday 2nd July, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes many PMs, traders, and investors alongside my subs as well as LPs where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, research, and market color. There is often very interesting discussion that occurs on there among professional investors.

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]]><![CDATA[The WARschach Test]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-warschach-testhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-warschach-testMon, 29 Jun 2026 01:55:54 GMT

Episode 64 was recorded at 7pm EST on Sunday 28th June.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, and access the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes a number of my subs as well as LPs and other professional investors where I share a morning summary of the markets, real time market color & analysis, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and great interaction with many other professional investors

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]]><![CDATA[The China Bull Market You Are Missing]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-china-bull-market-you-are-missinghttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-china-bull-market-you-are-missingSun, 28 Jun 2026 23:45:47 GMT

In Episode 63, Benny and the 🐿️ were joined by Robert Wu. Robert is the founder and CEO of BigOne Lab, an alternative data and research company backed by S&P Global, serving leading institutional and corporate clients around the world. Robert writes for the opinion section of the New York Times and also writes at Baiguan and China Translated newsletters on Substack.

The show was recorded at 8pm EST on Thursday 25th June, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, and access the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my AI Capex Monitor real time website and my Whatsapp channel chat that includes a number of my subs as well as LPs and other professional investors where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and market color I get daily from my vast network of PM’s, traders, and brokers.

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]]><![CDATA[The South Sea Machine : "The Other Bubble of 1720"]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-south-sea-machine-the-other-bubblehttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-south-sea-machine-the-other-bubbleThu, 25 Jun 2026 21:05:51 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[WANTED: AI ROI - $600B REWARD]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/wanted-ai-roi-600b-rewardhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/wanted-ai-roi-600b-rewardTue, 23 Jun 2026 00:13:07 GMT

Benny & The Squirrel Ep. 62: “WANTED: AI ROI” was recorded at 6.45pm EST on Sunday 21st June.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, Benny’s personal thoughts, the episode slide deck, and the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my real time chat where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and market color I get daily from my vast network of PM’s, traders, and brokers.

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]]><![CDATA[Growth Without You]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/growth-without-youhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/growth-without-youSun, 21 Jun 2026 16:11:27 GMT

In Episode 61, Benny and the 🐿️ were joined by Paul Krake, Founder of View from the Peak and former analyst and PM at major macro shops such as Caxton and Moore Capital. Paul’s new book, Growth Without You, hits the bookstands next month.

The show was recorded at 4pm EST on Wednesday 17th June, 2026.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, the episode slide deck, and access the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my real time whatsapp channel chat that includes a number of my subs as well as LPs and other professional investors where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and market color I get daily from my vast network of PM’s, traders, and brokers.

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]]><![CDATA[THE DOCUSIGNED MOU]]>https://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-docusigned-mouhttps://www.capitalmisallocation.com/p/the-docusigned-mouMon, 15 Jun 2026 23:29:05 GMT

Episode 60 was recorded at 9.15pm EST on Sunday 14th June.

Become a paid subscriber to get full show notes, Benny’s personal thoughts, the episode slide deck, and the rest of my work. Paid subs also get access to my real time chat where I share a morning summary of the markets, random trades I put on that I find interesting, and market color I get daily from my vast network of PM’s, traders, and brokers.

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